| Week | Date | Result | Opponent | Score | ELO Before | ELO Change | ELO After | Win Prob |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Aug 30 2025 | L | Fresno State | 14-42 | 1491.1 | -49.9 | 1441.2 | 66.1% |
| 3 | Sep 6 2025 | L | USC | 20-59 | 1441.2 | -12.7 | 1428.5 | 19.4% |
| 4 | Sep 13 2025 | W | Jacksonville State | 41-34 | 1428.5 | +47.8 | 1476.3 | 36.2% |
| 5 | Sep 20 2025 | W | Maine | 45-17 | 1476.3 | +0.0 | 1476.3 | 46.6% |
| 6 | Sep 27 2025 | L | James Madison | 10-35 | 1476.3 | -24.4 | 1451.9 | 35.6% |
| 8 | Oct 9 2025 | L | Southern Miss | 35-38 | 1451.9 | -71.3 | 1380.6 | 79.1% |
| 9 | Oct 18 2025 | W | Georgia State | 41-24 | 1380.6 | +18.0 | 1398.6 | 73.0% |
| 10 | Oct 25 2025 | L | Arkansas State | 24-34 | 1398.6 | -35.6 | 1363.0 | 49.7% |
| 12 | Nov 6 2025 | W | App State | 25-23 | 1363.0 | +51.2 | 1414.2 | 47.6% |
| 13 | Nov 15 2025 | W | Coastal Carolina | 45-40 | 1414.2 | +46.3 | 1460.5 | 37.8% |
| 14 | Nov 22 2025 | L | Old Dominion | 10-45 | 1460.5 | -38.2 | 1422.3 | 37.3% |
| 15 | Nov 29 2025 | W | Marshall | 24-19 | 1422.3 | +52.7 | 1475.0 | 45.7% |
| 20 | Dec 29 2025 | W | App State | 29-10 | 1475.0 | +25.9 | 1500.9 | 69.6% |